A primary test of Trump’s influence still too close to call

A relative political newcomer with the backing of former President Donald Trump is claiming a primary victory over a top conservative in the U.S. House of Representatives.

With 97 percent of the vote counted, state Sen. John McGuire led U.S. Rep. Bob Good of Virginia by 311 votes in the 5th Congressional District Republican primary.

“Ladies and gentlemen, the votes are in, and the people have spoken. It is an honor to be your Republican nominee,” McGuire said on Tuesday evening.

Good, who has not conceded the race, believes there is still a chance he can make up the margin separating him and McGuire. If he is defeated, the House GOP will lose a stalwart conservative leader while potentially gaining a Trump loyalist.

Since arriving to the House in 2021, Good has pushed the GOP to jam the Senate with take-it-or-leave-it bills that would have cut spending or else force a government shutdown. He chairs the House Freedom Caucus, a group of the most conservative Republicans in the chamber. And in October, he voted to remove former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy for failing to deliver conservative wins.

Last year, Good was one of just eight House Republicans who endorsed someone other than former President Donald Trump in the GOP primaries. Earlier this month, Trump endorsed Good’s challenger. 

“McGuire would be a good congressman,” said Virginian Matthew Criddle, who serves on the executive board of the Western Tidewater Young Republicans. “[He] used to be one of my favorite delegates and state senators in the Virginia General Assembly. I like the guy a lot. But my thing is you don’t have good Republicans run against good Republicans. And that’s what’s going on here.”

Criddle believes the two men could have accomplished more if Good remained in Congress while McGuire worked to help Republicans take back control of the Virginia Senate.

“We all love Trump; he’s the leader of our party,” Criddle said. “Trump’s endorsement of McGuire I think has a lot to do with party unity. McGuire is more of a go-with-the-flow guy. … He prioritizes party unity.”

McGuire is a military veteran who finished 10 years of service as a Navy SEAL in 1998. He started a small fitness business before running for state office. In 2017, he won a seat in the Virginia House of Delegates before moving on to the state Senate in 2023. McGuire said he would not join the House Freedom Caucus if elected to Congress.

“He’s a Navy SEAL, captures the imagination,” U.S. Rep Rich McCormick, R-Ga., said of McGuire. “A resume in life is kind of what gets people to vote for you. You have a few ways to come at it. Are you good at raising money? Are you good at connecting with people? McGuire is formidable.”

McGuire became more formidable of a candidate earlier this month when Trump threw his full support behind McGuire.

“Bob Good is BAD FOR VIRGINIA, and BAD FOR THE USA,” Trump wrote in a post to Truth Social at the end of May. “He turned his back on our incredible movement and was constantly attacking and fighting me until recently when he gave me a warm and loving endorsement—But really, it was too late!”

Virginia resident Eric Routon voted for Good on Tuesday. He believes Trump needs aggressive conservatives like Good in Congress, regardless of their endorsement history.
“Sometimes at a local level you know better than at a federal level,” Routon said. “We as 5th District voters should know that Bob Good is going to be better for Trump than Trump trying to pick his man, because we see Bob Good.”

Routon expressed frustration with how Trump and congressional conservatives like Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., campaigned against Good expressly because he endorsed DeSantis.

“If you want to call someone a ‘liar, a backstabber, and a traitor’ because they supported a different person in the primaries, that’s what the primaries are for,” Routon said, responding to comments Greene made earlier this month. “You pick who you like and you filter through the possible candidates and when one rises to the top you should—as Bob Good has—get behind that candidate. Bob has done nothing outside of the ordinary.”

McCormick, the Georgia Republican, also endorsed DeSantis for president. I asked him if he had approached that decision with caution.

“I did,” McCormick said last week. “I made sure they knew I was never going to say anything bad about the president. I wanted to make sure they knew that it wasn’t against anybody—that it was for somebody. I tried to be very positive in general.”

McCormick ran unopposed in his May 21 primary. He did not receive Trump’s endorsement in 2022, but cruised to victory in his primary in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District.

The Republican nominee in Virginia’s 5th District faces off against Democratic challenger Gloria Witt, a businesswoman and CEO who secured the Democratic nomination with 57 percent of the vote.